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穆斯克如何在火星上建設(shè)“自給自足的城市”？

Humanity will go extinct unless it reaches for the stars and colonizes a new planet.

如果不能找到新的恒星，移民新的行星，人類終將走向滅絕。

That’s what Elon Musk says, at least. The tech billionaire wrote a new paper detailing his vision for a “self-sustaining city” on Mars that was published in the scientific journal New Space earlier this month and posted online Wednesday.

至少埃隆·穆斯克是這樣說的。這位科技行業(yè)的億萬富翁在本月早些時候的《新太空》（New Space）雜志上發(fā)表了一篇論文，詳細(xì)闡述了在火星建設(shè)“自給自足的城市”的愿景。這篇論文周三被發(fā)布在網(wǎng)上。

The 16-page commentary details ideas the SpaceX CEO has been mulling over for years and most recently presented at the International Aeronautical Congress in Mexico last September. But his outline for the journey is now available in print, complete with accompanying charts and illustrations. Now, the scientific community will be able to scrutinize the proposal at its convenience.

這篇共16頁的論文詳細(xì)介紹了SpaceX CEO過去幾年一直在思考的一些想法，總結(jié)了他在去年9月份墨西哥國際宇航聯(lián)大會（International Aeronautical Congress）上的演講內(nèi)容?，F(xiàn)在他把對火星之旅的大概想法變成了文字，還配上了圖表和插圖。這將更方便科學(xué)界研究他的火星移民計劃。

Musk writes the paper in such a candid manner that he almost makes the roughly 140 million mile trip seem easy. ” There really is a way that anyone could go if they wanted to,” he says. The main obstacle, Musk argues, is the high cost of transporting people to the red planet. Using traditional methods like the approach that was used to send men to the moon in 1969, he estimates that it would cost about $10 billion per ticket. Musk has a much more feasible target in mind.

穆斯克的論文非常直白，在他的筆下，這段大約1.4億英里的旅程似乎沒有太大難度。他說道：“實際上有一種方法可以讓想要移民火星的人們得償所愿。”穆斯克表示，目前的主要障礙是將人類運往火星的高昂運輸成本。他估計，如果使用傳統(tǒng)方法，例如1969年將人類送上月球所使用的方法，每張票的成本將高達100億美元。但穆斯克心中有一個更可行的目標(biāo)。

“If we can get the cost of moving to Mars to be roughly equivalent to a median house price in the United States, which is around $200,000, then I think the probability of establishing a self-sustaining civilization is very high,” Musk writes. “I think it would almost certainly occur.”

他寫道：“只要我們能將前往火星的成本降到相當(dāng)于美國一套普通住房的價格，也就是大約200,000美元，我認(rèn)為在火星上建設(shè)自給自足的人類文明的可能性是非常高的。我想這一定能實現(xiàn)。”

In order to achieve that price point, Musk outlines several steps to improve the cost of Mars travel by “five million percent”: Spaceships must be fully reusable, they should be able to refuel in orbit, and then once again on Mars with fuel that is yielded from production plants built on the planet. Musk states that methane is the ideal propellant because the technical challenges to harvest it on Mars are significantly easier than substances like hydrogen, which he says is too expensive.

為了將火星之旅的成本降低“五百萬個百分點”，穆斯克列出了幾個步驟：宇宙飛船必須完全可以重復(fù)使用，可以在地球軌道上填充燃料，而在火星上建設(shè)的生產(chǎn)設(shè)備將生產(chǎn)燃料供飛船使用。穆斯克認(rèn)為甲烷是理想的火箭推進劑，因為在火星上制作甲烷的技術(shù)難度要低于提取氫或其他物質(zhì)的難度。他認(rèn)為氫燃料的成本過高。