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Perhaps the most influential management thinker alive, Jim Collins addressed the reasons companies succeed and fail in bestselling books like Good to Great and Built to Last. In their new book, Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos and Luck — Why Some Thrive Despite Them All, Collins and co-author Morten T. Hansen studied leadership in turbulent times, a topic they chose in 2002 that could not be more relevant today. Below, an exclusive excerpt:
吉姆•柯林斯或許是在世的管理大師中最偉大的一位，在其暢銷書《從優(yōu)秀到卓越》（Good to Great）和《基業(yè)長(zhǎng)青》（Built to Last）中，他闡述了公司成功和失敗的原因。在與莫頓•T•漢森合著的新書——《選擇偉大：不確定性、混亂和運(yùn)氣——一些公司緣何在大多數(shù)公司失敗時(shí)仍立于不敗之地》（Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos and Luck — Why Some Thrive Despite Them All）中，吉姆•柯林斯對(duì)動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力展開了研究。雖然這一課題是他們?cè)?002年時(shí)選定的，但是在目前的大背景下，這一話題更具有深刻的意義。以下為新書的獨(dú)家摘要：

We cannot predict the future. But we can create it.
雖然我們不能預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)，但是我們可以創(chuàng)造未來(lái)。

Think back to 15 years ago, and consider what’s happened since, the destabilizing events — in the world, in your country, in the markets, in your work, in your life — that defied all expectations. We can be astonished, confounded, shocked, stunned, delighted, or terrified, but rarely prescient. None of us can predict with certainty the twists and turns our lives will take. Life is uncertain, the future unknown.
想想15年前的情景，再想想15年來(lái)發(fā)生的一切，不確定事件——全世界、各個(gè)國(guó)家、各種市場(chǎng)、個(gè)人工作和生活——那些發(fā)生在所有領(lǐng)域、超乎人們預(yù)料的事件，都會(huì)使我們深受震驚、困惑，或開心或恐懼，但是我們很少能對(duì)此進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。任何一個(gè)人都無(wú)法對(duì)生命中即將出現(xiàn)的動(dòng)蕩給予準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)。生命中充滿了不確定性，未來(lái)更是如此。

We began the nine-year research project behind this book in 2002, when America awoke from its false sense of stability, safety, and wealth entitlement. The long-running bull market crashed. The government budget surplus flipped back to deficits. The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, horrified and enraged people everywhere, and war followed. Meanwhile, throughout the world, technological change and global competition continued their relentless, disruptive march. It led us to a simple question: Why do some companies thrive in uncertainty, even chaos, and others do not? When buffeted by tumultuous events, when hit by big, fast-moving forces that we can neither predict nor control, what distinguishes those who perform exceptionally well from those who underperform or worse?
自2002年開始，我們對(duì)本書的主題展開了研究。當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)剛剛從穩(wěn)定、安全和財(cái)富權(quán)利的錯(cuò)誤觀念中清醒。長(zhǎng)期存在的牛市出現(xiàn)崩潰。政府預(yù)算盈余不復(fù)存在，一路下跌為財(cái)政赤字。2011年9月11日的恐怖襲擊，使全美人民備感恐慌和憤怒，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)隨即爆發(fā)。同時(shí)，世界范圍內(nèi)，技術(shù)變革和充滿了破壞性的全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)繼續(xù)無(wú)情地上演著。這就讓我們想到了一個(gè)非常簡(jiǎn)單的問(wèn)題：為什么有些公司可以在充滿不確定性、甚至是混亂的背景下取得成功，而其他的公司卻無(wú)法做到呢？當(dāng)不斷遭受動(dòng)蕩事件的襲擊，不斷受到既無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)、又無(wú)法控制的快速變化的因素影響時(shí)，一部分公司依然能逆風(fēng)飛揚(yáng)；在與那些表現(xiàn)不佳或糟糕的公司相比時(shí)，是哪些特質(zhì)讓它們顯得如此與眾不同呢？

We don’t choose study questions. They choose us. Sometimes one of the questions just grabs us around the throat and growls, “I’m not going to release my grip and let you breathe until you answer me!” This study grabbed us because of our own persistent angst and gnawing sense of vulnerability in a world that feels increasingly disordered.
可以說(shuō)，不是我們選擇了研究課題，而是研究課題選擇了我們。有時(shí)，其中一個(gè)問(wèn)題一直是我們耳邊咆哮，“除非你回答我，否則我就不會(huì)放過(guò)你，不會(huì)讓你有喘息的機(jī)會(huì)！”長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，在混亂嘈雜的世界里，我們非常容易受到不良信息的影響。正是這種持續(xù)存在的憤怒和痛苦的感覺(jué)，讓我們?nèi)找骊P(guān)注這一課題。

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